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Prediction for CME (2023-11-28T20:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-28T20:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27924/-1
CME Note: Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in STEREO A COR2 after a data gap from 2023-11-28T18:53Z-23:53Z. Overlaps with CME: 2023-11-28T20:24Z in the coronagraphs, and is a separate, measurable CME occurring in close succession from the same active region. The source is an eruption from AR 3500 (S16W03) starting around 2023-11-28T19:00Z associated with an M3.4 class flare peaking at 2023-11-28T19:32Z and/or an M9.8 class flare peaking at 2023-11-28T19:50Z. Flare, EUV wave, dimming, and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 193, flare, opening field lines, and post-eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 171, and flare and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 94. Eruption is also visible in SDO AIA 304. Arrival signature characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components, with Btotal reaching 28nT, and an increase in speed from 373 km/s at 2023-12-01T08:49Z to 560 km/s at 09:20Z. Subsequent increases in density and temperature were observed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-01T08:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-01T17:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 31129
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Nov 2023, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Nov 2023  10CM FLUX: 185 / AP: 005 
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Nov 2023  10CM FLUX: 182 / AP: 010 
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Dec 2023  10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 027

Coronal mass ejections: A full halo Corona Mass Ejection (CME) was automatically detected by CACTus as launched yesterday at 20:24 UTC. It is associated with an M9 flare and is expected to become geo-effective during the second half of 1 Dec.

Lead Time: 43.53 hour(s)
Difference: -8.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2023-11-29T13:16Z

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